US container volumes set fo weak 2026 amid ongoing trade uncertainty
Posted December 2025
US ports face another down year for volumes in 2026 due to ongoing uncertainty over the direction of US trade and tariff policy, according to an S&P Global credit outlook.
The forecast drop in container volumes echoes similar outlooks from major US port operators whose fortunes are not expected to turn around until 2027.
S&P Global Ratings said Tuesday that while US economic output and employment are expected to remain stable through next year, ports face a down year as the Trump administration’s wide-ranging tariffs against most US trade partners likely make shippers cautious and continue to reshore production.
Trade with China might stabilize in 2026 due to the trade deal the US struck with China through next November, S&P Global Ratings said. But tariffs against China and other trading partners remain at record high levels, forcing shippers to be cautious.
A US Supreme Court ruling against Trump’s tariffs could reignite cargo shipments, the outlook said. Nevertheless, S&P Global said US port container volumes will decline 2% in 2026. The outlook calls for a rebound in volume of 6% in 2027 on the hopes of a more stable trade policy. The outlook did not include actual volume figures. “US ports face the greatest uncertainty due to the evolving tariff landscape in 2026,” S&P Global Ratings said. “The recently negotiated truce in the US-China trade conflict provides a measure of certainty until that agreement expires. Our estimate of slightly lower container volumes in 2026 is followed by a solid recovery in 2027.”
The outlook follows a similar forecast from the National Retail Federation (NRF), which said Monday first-quarter 2026 port volumes could see double-digit declines from the year earlier. Overall, the NRF expects 2025 volumes to come in slightly below 2024. Credit ratings agency Moody’s on Nov. 18 warned that US import volumes in 2026 will be flat to down 2% from this year.
Port operators, too, are budgeting for declines or only slow growth in 2026. The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey said in November it’s budgeting for total container volumes of 8.5 million TEUs in 2026, which would be just over a 2% decline from 2024. Since 2016, NY-NJ port container volumes have grown at an annual average of 4.2%.
Port Houston Authority also said last month it’s budgeting for container volumes to reach 4.4 million TEUs in 2026, which would represent growth of 4.7%, below the port’s decade-long average volume growth of 7%.